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| 06 October 2008 Daily Forecast |
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| FX Market Outlook for Week of 6-10 October 2008
Euro/Dollar
Last week's range: 1.4438 - 1.4865 (Up)Previous range: 1.4075 - 1.4539 (Up) Euro/dollar hit a five-week high last Monday before returning most of the gains. It's basically stuck and needs more information before the next move. My model remains long, but the bias is down. Immediate support is at 1.4486. The next level is 1.4438. Below 1.4370, support is at 1.4255. Distant support is at 1.4153. Initial resistance is seen at 1.4600. The next level is 1.4685. Above 1.4735, resistance is still seen at 1.4810. This is followed by 1.4910. Distant resistance is at 1.5015. NEAR-TERM:Slightly bearish MEDIUM-TERM:Bearish LONG-TERM: Mixed Dollar/yen
Last week's range: 105.04 - 107.46 (Down)Previous range: 103.56 - 108.01 (Up) Dollar/yen edged lower in an inside range, as the yen was a passive ingredient for cross trading. My model remains long. The medium-term outlook is mixed. Immediate resistance is at 106.75 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25. The next level is 107.95 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45. Above 108.80, look for a test of the 50-point pivot at 109.15, which targets 109.65 and 108.65. Good support is at 105.60 from a 50-point pivot that targets 105.10 and 106.10. This is followed at 104.50 by a 50-point pivot, which targets 104.00 and 105.00. The next level is 103.40 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 102.90 and 103.90. NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed LONG-TERM: Bullish Sterling/dollar
Last week's range: 1.8264 - 1.8668 (Up)Previous range: 1.7733 - 1.8386 (Up) Just like the euro/dollar, cable reached a five-week high, as expected, before surrendering most of the gains. It remains in a downtrend after failing to stay above the median of that channel. My model remains long but the downside is favored first. Initial support is at 1.8250. Below this level, strong support now comes at 1.8110. This is followed by 1.7917. Distant support comes at 1.7776. Initial resistance is at 1.8355. Good resistance follows at 1.8475 and 1.8515. Above the strong level at 1.8668, further resistance is at 1.8750. Distant resistance is now seen at 1.8865. NEAR-TERM:Mixed to slightly bearish MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish LONG-TERM:Bearish Dollar/Swiss franc
Last week's range: 1.0698 - 1.1060 (Down)Previous range: 1.0901 - 1.1305 (Down) Dollar/Swiss recovered most of its losses after sinking to a seven-week low last Monday. My model is short, but the risk is on the upside. Initial resistance now comes at 1.0973. The next level is 1.1055. This is followed by 1.1185 and 1.1279. Above 1.1417 there is a pivot high at 1.1605. Immediate support is at 1.0890. Below 1.0790, support is now pegged at 1.0698. Distant support moved down to 1.0555. NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish MEDIUM-TERM:Bullish LONG-TERM: Mixed Sources - GFT Have a Great Week!
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